According to The Kobeissi Letter, the Nasdaq 100-to-M2 money supply ratio has climbed to a record 0.027 after more than doubling from the 2022 bear-market low (source: The Kobeissi Letter on X, Jan 14, 2026). According to The Kobeissi Letter, over the same period the Nasdaq 100 rallied 141% while M2 increased 5%, indicating equity prices have outpaced money supply growth and pushed the ratio higher (source: The Kobeissi Letter on X, Jan 14, 2026). For trading, a rising equities-to-liquidity ratio highlights stretched risk-on performance relative to money supply, a backdrop that has historically coincided with stronger co-movement between crypto and tech stocks, including BTC and ETH (source: IMF blog “Crypto Prices Move More in Sync With Stocks,” Jan 2022). Traders in BTC and ETH can track this ratio as a risk-on gauge alongside Nasdaq 100 momentum, given documented periods of high BTC–equity correlation in 2020–2022 (source: IMF blog “Crypto Prices Move More in Sync With Stocks,” Jan 2022).

According to @CryptoMichNL, valuing assets against the M2 money supply avoids misrepresentation seen in USD-denominated charts, which can obscure true trend strength for risk assets, source: @CryptoMichNL. He states the Dutch stock market remains 70% below its all-time high when benchmarked to M2 despite printing new ATHs in USD terms, source: @CryptoMichNL. He adds that gold and other assets show similar underperformance versus M2, indicating liquidity-adjusted drawdowns are deeper than USD charts imply, source: @CryptoMichNL. He concludes that these reference parameters indicate no recession or bear market on the horizon, and he focuses his analysis on such benchmarks for clearer signals, source: @CryptoMichNL.

According to @BullTheoryio, U.S. M2 money supply has reached a record $22.3 trillion and is expanding at the fastest pace since mid-2022, signaling a liquidity turn that historically supports risk assets and crypto [source: @BullTheoryio]. According to @BullTheoryio, periods of accelerating M2 have coincided with rallies in BTC and altcoins, while slowdowns have aligned with crypto drawdowns [source: @BullTheoryio]. According to @BullTheoryio, the driver is an outlook for continued Federal Reserve rate cuts that lower borrowing costs and redirect capital into higher-beta assets like BTC and alts [source: @BullTheoryio]. According to @BullTheoryio, citing UBS expectations, the Federal Reserve could begin purchasing about $40 billion per month in T-bills in early 2026, which would function as early-stage quantitative easing and further boost liquidity if implemented [source: @BullTheoryio citing UBS]. According to @BullTheoryio, a mix of rising M2, lower rates, and balance sheet-style operations would likely weaken the U.S. dollar over the next few quarters, a backdrop the author notes has historically accompanied Bitcoin breakouts, altcoin expansions, and broader risk rallies [source: @BullTheoryio]. According to @BullTheoryio, prior liquidity expansions in 2016-2017 and 2020-2021 aligned with crypto bull runs, and the current acceleration is described as one of the strongest macro setups for BTC and altcoins since the 2020-2021 cycle [source: @BullTheoryio].